It takes a lot of effort to beat a bookmaker, every professional gambler is well aware of this. It’s not enough just to be well versed in the sport you are betting on, you also need to have an effective strategy. To find out which technique suits your playing style, you need to try different ones. We will talk about one of them, called Bayesian probability in bets, in our article.
When Bayesian Analysis Came Into
This analysis became famous thanks to the English priest Thomas Bayes, who was actively involved in theological and mathematical sciences in the 18th century. Interestingly, his work did not gain much popularity until the second half of the 20th century with the advent of the first computers.
It was then that Bayesian “Essay on Problem Solving in the Theory of Random Events” received due recognition and began to be actively used in various fields related to the application of probability theory in uncertain situations. As for the use of this theory in betting, it can help the player calculate the probability of different outcomes, taking into account the emergence of new circumstances.
How Bayesian Probability is Calculated
This analysis is based on the following formula: P (A | B) = P (A) * P (B | A) / P (B), where:
- Р (А) – initial probability of assumption А;
- Р (В) – absolute probability of occurrence of event В;
- Р (A | B) – probability of assumption A when event B occurs;
- P (B | A) – probability of occurrence of event B, if assumption A is true.
To make it clearer, let’s look at the use of Bayes’ formula with a specific example. Let’s imagine that the favorite and the outsider meet in the next round of the football championship. Having calculated the ratio of forces, taking into account all sorts of accompanying factors, the bettor calculated that the probability of winning a stronger team is 60%. One of the highlights is the potential participation in this match of a key central midfielder of the favorite team, who has not played in previous rounds due to injury. It is he who is responsible for creativity in the center of the field and is the real “brain” of the team.
The player understands that this factor will affect the balance of power, which means that it must be taken into account. To find out how much, you first need to determine the likelihood of this player appearing in the match, and this can be done by studying different sources of information, paying special attention to authentic ones. After that, it is necessary to study the statistics of the team with a key midfielder in the base and without him, this will show his contribution to success. Let’s imagine that the probability of a player appearing on the field is 65%, and the team wins with him in the base in 75% of matches. Now we substitute the obtained values into our formula and we get the following:
- P (A) – the probability of the favorite winning = 60%;
- P (B) – the probability of a playmaker entering the field = 70%;
- P (B | A) – the probability of the favorite winning when playing a key midfielder = 75%.
We make calculations: 60% * 75% / 70% = 64.3%. Thus, if the team manager is playing, the favorite’s probability of winning increases by 4.3% and is now 64.3%. Taking into account this new figure, the player gains an advantage, because he has studied in advance the potential change in the balance of power and can now consider offers from different bookmakers and find a profitable one for himself.
What is important to consider
When talking about using Bayesian probability in betting, it is important not to forget that it cannot predict the results with certainty, because even if the bettor calculated everything correctly, he cannot predict in what form the key midfielder will return. Players do not always return in good shape, and they often need to play a few unsuccessful matches before they regain their usual condition.
This strategy is good in that it allows you to increase the accuracy of making a prediction for a specific match, taking into account changes in the initial data. And then the bettor must take these calculations into account and look for discrepancies in their forecasts from the bookmakers in order to place bets on value odds.