Betting against winning streaks: pros and cons

Betting against winning streaks: pros and cons

One of the main signs of a high-class team or athlete is stability. Only tennis greats like Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic can win titles year after year. Only great teams like Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid or Juventus prove their strength from year to year, terrifying opponents. However, many fans are wondering: is it skill or luck behind winning streaks? And is there a system and strategy for betting during winning streaks?

winning streaks in sports

What if a coin …?

Let’s digress from professional sports for a moment and evaluate winning streaks from a mathematical point of view. Let’s just forget about the fact that some athletes are better, others are worse, and imagine their chances in the form of tossed coins.

By flipping a regular coin 100 times, according to the theory of probability, you will have a 75% chance of seeing a series of 6 consecutive hits of the same side. The chances of seeing 10 consecutive heads or tails is 10%. Does this indicate your high skill in coin tossing? Hardly, because this is pure luck. We can conclude that winning streaks sometimes occur out of the blue.

Of course, in sports, things are a little different. No one says that the stars reached the peaks solely by fluke. Obviously, talent, efficiency, high-quality work of the medical staff, etc. have also been added here. Roughly speaking, these factors make the “coin” less balanced, causing it to increasingly fall out the winning side. For example, if Rafael Nadal has been the “king of clay” throughout his career, and his percentage of victories on this surface has consistently exceeded 90% in the season, it’s silly to talk about luck alone.

When choosing a bet, one should very carefully pay attention to such a thing as a team’s winning streak. Based on the theory of probability, we can safely say: there is no guarantee that a team with a 5-match LLWWW kit (L – defeat, W – win) will beat a team with a WWLLL kit. The probability that a coin will be dropped 10 times in a row by one side is 0.09%. This corresponds to a factor of 1111 (1 / 0.0009). Have you ever managed to break through such an odds at the office? So it’s logical to bet that the team or the athlete will interrupt the winning streak.

Win streak betting strategy

All good things will end without fail – this is an axiom that is relevant for all spheres of life. If a team or athlete scores many victories in a row, it will stop sometime. And the longer the series, the closer its end.
In team events, winning streaks often occur after the offseason. A team can win several games in a row on the courage, but unbiased statistics say that at the start of the season, clubs usually win about 50% of meetings. Therefore, we should expect the end of the winning streak and even the beginning of an unsuccessful one.

There are other situations as well. The outsider loses a series of matches, and then collects and gives out a strong-willed victory. Such situations are not easy to track, because you need to take into account:

  • arrival of a new coach;
  • the underdog’s awareness of the fact that there is nowhere to retreat;
  • transition of new players;
  • the return of an injured or disqualified leader to the ranks.

Selecting a series for a bet

Some episodes are simply doomed to end. For example, if a recorded outsider wins 3 matches in a row, then with each subsequent game the chances of defeat increase. Such a series should be identified in a timely manner and a bet on the underdog should be made. If he suddenly wins again, you can use the catch-up strategy and bet against the same team in the next match.

The top teams are capable of longer winning streaks, but they also stumble early or late. But in the case of top clubs, it’s best not to try to catch their fiasco early in the season. Better to take a closer look to get an idea of ​​the shape of the club.

How to use a strategy against streaks?

To be successful against winning streaks requires a lot of prep work.

  • Monitor soccer stats sites and look for teams that have been on a winning streak for a long time. The prohibitively long streak is about to end;
  • You need to place bets on the end of the series until you win, using, as mentioned above, catch-up. You will not only cover the loss, but also remain in the black;
  • Analyze not only the team on the winning streak, but also its opponent. Each club or athlete has uncomfortable rivals – in this case, the chances of ending the winning streak become even better;
  • Rely on your knowledge and feelings, and not on the opinions of “experts”. People listen to their opinion, and bookmakers only benefit from this. Many bookmakers work with renowned commentators, experts, forecasters, and former football players. Can you guess what kind of “sure things” they can offer bettors?

A streak betting strategy can be both winning and losing at the same time. It is important to carefully select successful segments and analyze the situation comprehensively, taking into account the circumstances, form, quotes in bookmakers. Any series will be interrupted at some point – it is important to catch such a moment and make the right bet.

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