Confirmation effect and its impact on your sports betting

Confirmation effect and its impact on your sports betting

To win at the bookmaker’s office, several factors must come together at once. Some are directly related to analysis and forecasting, but psychology is no less important, in particular, the confirmation effect. How does it affect our sports betting, and what exactly is it? Experts from Mightytips will tell you about it.

What is confirmation effect in bets?

Confirmation effect in bets – what is it?

Imagine you want to bet on an event. You analyze the match for a long time and come to some decision, but then you find out information that, it would seem, should radically change your opinion. Let’s say your chosen team doesn’t have two key players, or a group of footballers boycotts training, demanding a pay rise. There can be many options, but not every bettor changes his mind after that, firmly believing in his analytics.

The confirmation effect is based on a simple theory – people are more likely to stick to their original opinion than to change it based on new evidence. Also, a person is inclined to believe the facts that confirm his opinion, and neglect others that contradict the already established attitudes.

Simply put, if you decide that in the Barcelona – Espanyol match there will be “total over 2.5 goals”, then you will seek out any information that can confirm your assumptions (productive head-to-head meetings, many goals scored in the last few games of the teams, good form of the strikers). At the same time, facts that contradict this rate (reliable play of goalkeepers and defense, absence of some important attacking players, difficult weather conditions) will be ignored.

Even if more facts are found to refute your initial opinion, the brain will instinctively leave only the “necessary” ones. For example, we saw in the line a match between the football teams of Belgium and Iceland and an unusually high coefficient for the victory of the first (say, 2.0). It would seem that the level of teams is now very different in favor of the Belgians, but why then bookmakers give such a odds? When analyzing a match, we only look for information that confirms our choice, completely ignoring any details that indicate a prediction failure:

  • the Belgians will not have the Azar brothers, De Bruyne and a couple of important players;
  • Icelanders have a good balance in personal encounters with Belgians;
  • Iceland has not lost 6 matches in a row.

Often bettors will discard these three factors, leaving only the fourth for themselves – the last full-time match of the teams remained with Belgium with a confident score. And it doesn’t matter that it was a friendly match, in which Iceland played with an experimental squad, and at the 6th minute remained in the minority. At the level of intuition, thanks to this fact, we will get the effect of confirmation, and after a meeting, which the Belgians will not win, we will wildly regret it.

How to deal with the confirmation effect when betting on sports

The confirmation effect is mainly affected by beginners and those players for whom betting is not a professional occupation, but entertainment. However, even among professionals, there are those who are susceptible to this phenomenon, they just know how to cope with it.

To fight this factor, you must first accept and realize it. You must soberly assess yourself and understand whether such actions are characteristic of you. If this story is about you, then in order to reduce the influence of this phenomenon:

  • compare and objectively evaluate opposing points of view as often as possible;
  • get rid of prejudices and sympathy for the teams (the first rule of any capper);
  • rely only on proven facts – at least three arguments or statistical squeezes should speak in favor of a particular rate.

It is not easy to implement all of the above in practice. Even if you can’t be 100% objective (no one can do that), objectively evaluating valid points of view that contradict your views will make you a stronger player.

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