Many players are looking for the very strategy that will allow them to make money on sports betting without risks. Most of them are based on competent bankroll management. And one of them is the d’Alembert strategy, named after the great mathematician. In this article, we will analyze how this strategy works and whether it makes sense to place bets on it.
How to bet with the d’Alembert strategy
The d’Alembert strategy is a modified Martingale strategy. Instead of a geometric progression, an arithmetic progression is used. The player does not double the bet after losing, but increases it by a fixed amount. We take a step of 100 rubles and play like this:
- the first bet is 100 rubles – a loss;
- the second bet is 200 rubles – a loss;
- the third bet is 300 rubles – a win;
- the fourth rate is 100 rubles.
As in the case of Martingale, playing according to the d’Alembert strategy, the player must “roll back” to the original bet value. The odds must be 2 or higher.
D’Alembert strategy and sports betting – how does it work?
Now let’s take an example of how the d’Alembert strategy should work on real sports bets. For example, let’s take a bank of 2000 rubles, a step of 100 rubles and a coefficient of 3.
|Series bet number||Bet amount||Coefficient||Exodus||Bank|
It turns out that with a coefficient of 3, a streak of more than 5 defeats in a row puts the player in the red. Is this possible? Quite, everyone who has been betting for at least a couple of years has caught longer streaks of defeats in a row – this is the norm for betting.
D’Alembert’s sports betting strategy – does it work?
In the table above, 10 bets are considered, of which only 2 are winning, but the bank has remained practically unchanged. And if you win more often than 2 out of 10 bets, then in theory you can get a profit. This is not the case, the d’Alembert strategy in sports does not work for several reasons. Let’s take a look at each of them in detail.
D’Alembert’s strategy in terms of mathematics
Considering d’Alembert’s strategy from a mathematical point of view, there are two important factors to consider. Events are not related to each other. According to the theory of probability, the longer the required outcome does not occur, the higher the chance of getting it on the next attempt. But the bottom line is that the events have nothing to do with each other. And the results of one do not mathematically affect the results of the other.
Consistency matters. In d’Alembert’s strategy, it is important which one will play. In fact, if we win the first two times and then the tenth time, we are still in a big loss. A streak of 5 defeats in a row is already driving the player into a negative. This is not the case with Martingale.
D’Alembert strategy in terms of sports betting
Our example is based on odds 3. but it should be understood that for sports betting this is a very high odds and the net probability of passing it is below 33%.
It is worth considering the bookmaker’s margin, which also affects the calculations and does not play in the better’s favor.
But even if this is not taken into account, then there are still two factors that completely cut everything:
- the player does not have infinite money;
- in bookmakers there are maximums for bets.
Therefore, even the most ideal mathematical model breaks down on the reality that the maximum bet on the chosen outcome can be significantly lower than the required one.
D’Alembert’s modified strategies
There are several modified d’Alembert strategies that look more interesting on paper:
- If you win, do not roll back to the initial value, but lower the rate by one step. Roughly speaking, if you win at a bet of 400 rubles, the next denomination should not be 100, but 300 rubles.
- Counter d’Alembert strategy. It works in reverse. If you win, we raise the rate, if you lose, we lower it.
But over the long haul, the bottom line remains the same.
So is it worth playing?
And in conclusion, let’s summarize everything that was said above. For the strategy to work, you need to win more than 50% of the bets with odds of 2 or higher. But if a long-distance player has such statistics, then why does he need any strategies at all?
Another interesting fact, if you play according to this strategy, betting 1%, and increasing the rate by the same 1%, then you need only 13 unsuccessful bets in a row to drain the entire pot. This may seem like a hefty sum, but lack of self-control often drives players into huge losing streaks.
If you look at the players’ reviews of the d’Alembert strategist, they are mostly negative. This strategy is not as popular as Martingale, so there are few reviews.
As a bankroll control tool, D’Alembert looks more sane and softer than Martingale, especially a modified version. But it is definitely not worth using it as a tool for making money on bets. After all, it is much more important not how to place bets, but what.
– Can a bookmaker cut the account for using a betting strategy?
As a rule, no. Bookmakers cut bills to players who bet on surebets.
– With which bank is it better to start betting according to the strategy?
The size of the bankroll is not important, it is recommended to bet as a percentage.
– What is the optimal bet size?
With a large pot, experienced players do not recommend betting more than 1-2%.
– What sport is better to bet on?
You need to bet on the kind of sport in which you understand. Otherwise, no betting strategy will help.