Football trend betting

Football trend betting

The soccer trend betting strategy is considered one of the most effective in soccer. If we take dry statistics, then about 65% are successful. Let’s take a look at the effectiveness of this strategy and answer the question of whether it is suitable for all players.

How to bet on football by trends

What are Trends in Football Betting

Trends are a combination of statistics and trends. A large amount of data is collected and analyzed, and it is quite easy to identify obvious trends. For example, the Austrian and Swedish football championships have always been scored, and the trend for these leagues was TB 2.5. This means that in most matches, teams have scored more than 2.5 goals. On the contrary, France has always been considered a championship with a TM 2.5 trend. If we take statistics for the last 10 years, it will be seen that there is an overwhelming majority of matches with a very small number of goals.

But in the last 3-4 seasons, the French Ligue 1 began to deviate from this trend, the teams began to score more. This is largely because attacking players are selling better and more expensive. If the club wants to make good money, then the model needs to be rebuilt to suit the attacking style of play. Which leads the teams to the fact that they start to score more, but also concede more. Fewer goals are scored in the French league now than in the rest of the leading leagues, but the number of goals scored is steadily increasing.

Ligue 1 example Shows how trends can evolve over time. For example, let’s look at the two seasons 2010-2011 and 2019-2020. The average total in the first case is 2.34 goals per game. In the second case – 2.52. There is a difference, but it is not very big. The following example would be more revealing:

Here is a summary table for the 2010-2011 season

League 1 statistics for the 2010-2011 season

But for the 2019-2020 season

League 1 for the 2019-2020 season

In the first case, only 7 teams hit the total of 2.5 per match, in the second, 13 teams have already done it. This is the trend for the French teams to score much more.

We have analyzed in detail the trend for an increase in the number of goals scored to understand the importance of how to bet according to trends, in the future we will return to this example.

Are Trends Betting Statistically?

An important point, now there are so many statistics that they often contradict themselves. Therefore, you need to be able to read statistics that are freely available. There are simple options:

  • Number of cards. There are teams that play aggressively and often foul. There are also judges who judge more severely than their peers.
  • Number of corners. Teams that play through domination often attack and often score goals.

These are just two of the simplest examples, but they are very popular with players because they are easy to bet on.

To complete the picture, it is necessary to understand the championship, the style of play of each of the teams and the coach’s ideas. Otherwise, a frivolous approach will lead to failure. In derbies, teams tend to play more aggressively and the deviation from statistics will be higher than usual.

How to bet on soccer trends

The first thing to do is watch football. In order to correctly read the statistics, you need to see and understand what is happening on the field. A prime example is Wolverhampton, which is ranked 6th in the Premier League standings. This team took the most points from the big six clubs. Wolves love to give the ball to their opponents. The top teams are happy to take the initiative, but the weaker rivals are in no hurry to dominate the possession.

Oftentimes, giving the ball to an opponent is seen as weak, but Wolverhampton shows that it is not. There are a lot of similar examples in trend betting.

Where to get statistics? There are many services providing detailed statistical data. Here are just some of the popular ones:

  • whoscored;
  • nb-bet;
  • flashscore.

It is necessary to bet on trends at the moment the line opens. At this point, the odds have not yet been squandered by other bettors’ money.

Cons of betting on soccer trends

At first glance, everything is fine, trend rates give high traffic if you stick to them, but there are several disadvantages that must be taken into account:

  • The line opens long before the start of the match. For top championships, the match is listed 2 weeks before the start. During this time, an important player can be injured. You don’t have to go far for examples. Emeric Laporte is the backbone of Manchester City’s defense. When he drops out, the townspeople start to miss a lot more. Last season, the townspeople conceded only 23 goals. For the incomplete current already 31, this result is influenced by the absence of a French defender.
  • Odds. Bookmakers are well aware of trends, what statistics are shown by teams. And a very low odds are given for a confident bet. Players need to bet on bad odds or take risks. Both options are not profitable over long distances.

How to bet on football trends correctly?

Obvious trends are given a low coefficient, which, moreover, quickly falls. Therefore, experienced players are looking for subtle trends, for which they give profitable coefficients.

And here it is worth returning to the French Ligue 1, where there is a trend towards an increase in goals scored in the match. At the same time, the line has lower odds for TM 2.5, with the exception of matches in which I play Monaco and PSG. The former score a lot and concede, the latter simply score a lot. The players still believe that they don’t score much in France, but this is not the case.

A more prominent example is Arsenal, and that part of the Premier League season where Unai Emery was the main mentor. The Spanish coach was unable to prepare the club for the season, constantly rebuilding tactical schemes, which confused the players. And for cappers, there are several interesting trends outlined here:

  • Arsenal often conceded first;
  • Arsenal lost the first half;
  • Arsenal played well in the second half.

And here are the statistics for this current season:

Arsenal 2019-2020

The striking trend is the average total of 2.71. Yes, this bar was often broken through in the Gunners’ matches, but low odds were given to it. More interest is attracted by almost 40% of the defeat in the first half. For a team like Arsenal, this is an unaffordable luxury. Oftentimes, the bookmaker on the starting line would overvalue Arsenal when it wasn’t about playing with the rest of the big six.

Is this trend alive now? No, with the change of coach, the game began to level out, if Unai Emery remained at the helm, the percentage of defeats in the first half would approach 45-50%.

The odds for the first goal were high. A prime example is the match that took place in the 9th round of the Premier League between Sheffield and Arsenal.

Sheffield - Arsenal

On the first goal of Sheffield, bookmakers gave odds in the region of 2.7, unfortunately, such markets are not preserved in history. And there was a coefficient of about 4 to win in the first half.

So is it worth betting on trend football?

Definitely yes. But you need to take into account a huge amount of little things and really understand football. Otherwise, it will not lead to anything good. It is worth remembering that statistics are an excellent tool, but only in capable hands. And thoughtless bets on fashion trends will sooner or later lead to the drain of the entire bankroll.


– Is it possible to bet on trends for other sports?

Yes, the betting strategy works wherever statistics can be collected.

– In which bookmaker is it better to bet on trends?

Better to place bets in the bookmaker, which gives the widest possible list.

– Is it possible to bet on trends in Live?

Yes, in order to catch a better odds.

– What odds are better for betting?

Experienced players recommend betting on odds of 2 and higher.

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