The result of a football match depends on a number of factors, one of which is the person of the chief referee of the match. Now, with the widespread introduction of the VAR system, the teams have the opportunity to challenge this or that episode, but the last word still rests with the judge. There is no escape from the bias of referees in football in one manifestation or another – this is the very human factor for which we love or hate this sport, but do not remain indifferent to it. Mightytips will discuss how referee bias in football affects betting at the bookmaker’s office.
Influence of the referee’s decisions on the course and result of the match
Initially, each referee is called upon to ensure fair and unbiased conditions of the game, minimize conflicts on the field and clearly record violations of the rules. For this, he also has line assistants (linesmen), but the last word is with the referee in the field.
As the pace of football grows every year, FIFA has experimented with additional goal officials. However, the effectiveness of such assistants turned out to be minimal – the controversial decisions did not decrease, but the additional psychological burden on the teams of referees fell. Like, now there are five of you, how could you not have seen this blow to the legs (goal, handball, etc.)?
The course and the final score of the match depend on the decisions of the referee in the most direct way. Here are just the most important decisions that a referee can make during a fight.
- Appointment of a penalty kick. According to statistics, about 80% of penalties awarded end in a goal, that is, 4 hits out of 5 hit the target. The importance of such a judicial decision can hardly be overestimated.
- Removing a player. The decision is made if the player has grossly violated the rules or behaved disrespectfully towards the referee or the opponent. Left in the minority, the overwhelming majority of teams are forced to play to keep the score. The exception is the removal of a player as part of the clear favorite in a match against a recorded outsider.
- Inaction of the referee. Causes no less scandals than controversial penalties and removals. During the match, the referee can simply turn a blind eye to the illegal actions of one of the teams, which helps her to achieve a victorious result.
Obviously, the judging factor when planning your betting strategy is of the utmost importance. It depends on the person of the referee and his actions on the football field whether your forecast will play out.
What affects the decisions made by the arbitrators?
It is no secret that millions of people around the world play football. Someone knows how to do it brilliantly (Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and some others), someone worse. The situation is similar with referees, whose level and abilities differ.
Arbitrators tend to make different decisions depending on a number of factors. When planning your bets on football, you should pay attention to the following:
- Tournament stage. The more serious the stage of the competition, the greater the burden falls on the shoulders of the referee. Experienced referees are able to cope with such pressure, but young ones often “break”.
- The intensity of the match. It’s one thing to judge the derby between Real Madrid and Barcelona, quite another to serve a meaningless match between the middle peasants like Celta and Levante. Intense matches, derbies, just principled battles are in every championship and tournament, usually the best referees are appointed for such fights.
- The personal attitude of the referee towards the teams. It is believed that a professional referee should be completely impartial. However, it has long been noticed that personal preferences and moments in life can influence the decisions of the arbiter. The referee may have long-standing conflicts with the coach, one of the team’s players or fans. FIFA, UEFA and national federations try to select the most neutral referees, but this is not always possible.
- The reputation of an arbiter. Each judge highly values his reputation, which has been earned over the years. If you lose it, you will lose invitations to top matches and, accordingly, large fees. Therefore, a judge with a good reputation will think twice whether it is worth ruining his career out of personal dislike. Moreover, if the referee’s bias is proven, he can be removed from the matches in principle. It is even worse if the referee is involved in the “agreements” – in this case, he will become a defendant in a criminal case.
Judge bias: what to consider when betting on football
From time to time, fans, players or team coaches feel that they are being judged unfairly. There may be many reasons for this, but the main one is an unfortunate result. Agree, it’s rare to find a coach or a winning team’s footballer who complains about refereeing. But the losers often blame the referees for their troubles, and they do not always do it justifiably.
And yet, no matter how hard the judges try to be objective, bias from them, willy-nilly, slips through. Such a fate befell at least once, probably, all referees in the world. Therefore, when analyzing a football match for betting, the following information regarding the referee should be taken into account:
- The presence of scandals or controversial issues related to his activities. If the referee has been repeatedly criticized for an ambiguous decision and productive errors, it may be worthwhile to bypass this fight by the side;
- Statistics of the referee’s work with each of the teams participating in the upcoming match. It is also worth checking if the referee has previously worked in face-to-face meetings of these clubs;
- The judge’s statistics for home and away matches. Some referees cannot withstand the pressure of the home stands and “help” the hosts. Others, on the other hand, do not tolerate the press and may deliberately start judging in favor of the guests.
Most professional football referees try to work with an open mind. But various factors can provoke a judge to work not entirely objectively. When choosing a bet in a bookmaker, you should carefully analyze the person of the arbiter, since he can have a key influence on the result.