Newcastle – Manchester United: forecast and rate of Vladimir Chaplygin

We take as a basis the statistics of performance in the last season of the Premier League. This is necessary so that each team has the same set of rivals, after which it is correct to compare the achieved performance.

So, “Newcastle” at home made 12.78 tackles per game on average, while Manchester United averaged 14.36 away. It would seem that a bet in favor of the home team is not entirely appropriate here, since the guests have a noticeable advantage. But here you also need to pay attention to one additional parameter: how many tackles this or that team, on average, allowed its rivals to do. And here we have completely different numbers. Those who came to visit Newcastle averaged 13.89 tackles per game, while Manchester United gave the home team 17.36 tackles.

And one more important factor. Usually, if one team is in possession of the ball with confidence, then its opponent has a better chance of winning the tackle. Everything is logical: more movement with the ball, the higher the chance of making a mistake and not noticing how you were robbed by a player of the defending team. For Manchester United, bookmaker analysts have set a handicap bar for possession of (-27) points. That is, the guests’ advantage is expected to be very weighty. I think that a neat bet on the handicap (+2) points in terms of the number of tackles for the home team looks quite appropriate in such a statistical scenario.

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