Outsider betting strategy in tennis

Outsider betting strategy in tennis

In any sport, including tennis, there have always been plenty of underdog victories. If not for the sensations, bookmakers would have gone bankrupt long ago, because many bettors place bets on favorites and are sincerely surprised when they do not enter. Such surprises can and should be calculated; all you need is a strategy of betting on an outsider in tennis. We will talk about how to do this.

How to bet on outsiders in tennis

Why is it worth betting on outsiders in tennis?

If the favorites always took their toll, tennis would lose a piece of its charm. In the decisive stages of tournaments, the same athletes would always play, the number of titles of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer would grow at an incredible pace.

Outsider bets in tennis

Neutral fans love tennis for sensations and unexpected results. If you follow tennis closely, you can earn money on the victories of the underdogs. In this regard, single sports like tennis or boxing are more convenient than team sports. The fate of a fight depends on two people, and it is easier to predict their behavior and state than to conduct a pre-match analysis of two teams.

In tennis, it is convenient to place bets in LIVE mode. Let’s say you bet on the underdog with a high odds (over 5.0) in the prematch. In the course of the meeting, he takes the lead, and the odds for the victory of the initial favorite grows to 2.0. It is enough to correctly calculate the amount of the bet, which will be the opposite of your initial one, and you are already guaranteed to be in the black.

Outsider betting in tennis: features

Let’s make a reservation right away that mindless bets against favorites at a distance will bring nothing but loss of the bank. A preliminary analysis and assessment of the condition of the players will definitely be needed. Taking into account certain factors and not being lazy to disassemble the upcoming rivals “into molecules”, the strategy for an outsider in tennis can be promising.

Here are some aspects of tennis betting to consider:

  • Coating. Even newcomers to the world of tennis betting know that every tennis player has a favorite court surface. For example, Nadal is the “clay king”, and Federer loves to play on the grass. Top players are generally versatile, so it’s better to bet against lower ranked players. They often only know how to play well on one surface.
  • Motivation. The level of a player’s motivation is influenced by the size of the prize money for a particular match / tournament and the desire to earn more rating points. Highly ranked players sometimes come to smaller tournaments (ATP / WTA 250 categories) for fun or to train with increased responsibility before a major competition. You need to catch such moments and bet on the underdogs;
  • Flights, acclimatization. Constant movement around the planet is an integral part of professional tennis players. Athletes have to dramatically change regions, climate and time zones. If a weaker tennis player has been training at the site of the tournament for several weeks, and the favorite has arrived “from the ship to the ball,” it makes sense to think about betting on the underdog;
  • The financial strategy of betting on outsiders in tennis is not about catching up. In case of a loss, in no case should you increase the bet amount and the odds (it will be decent anyway!). The maximum bet size should not exceed 5% of the game bank. When betting on very high odds (from 5.00 and higher), it is recommended not to bet more than 1% of the pot.

Underdogs in tennis: when, where and on whom to bet

You should not chase very transcendental odds (from 10.0 and higher). Consider forecasts for tennis players with quotes in the range from 2.5 to 7.0. You also need to evaluate the experience, the level of the underdogs and the timing of the competition.

  1. Tournaments before the “Grand Slam”. If the favorite looms ahead of Roland Garros or Wimbledon, it is unlikely that he will give all his best in the tournament category-250. The beginning of the season looks especially promising for betting on an outsider, when not all the tops have yet reached their optimal shape. The less important the tournament, the more suitable for betting against the favorite.
  2. Tournaments after the “Grand Slam”. After major tournaments, motivation drops, but the season needs to be continued. Therefore, top tennis players and those who have shot at the Grand Slam often come to the next tournament without proper concentration and attitude.
  3. Second season factor. An example is the German Alexander Zverev. He had an enchanting 2018, winning the Final Tournament, but in 2019 he started to decline. However, the bookmakers stubbornly continued to make him the clear favorite on most matches. Out of 33 meetings with his participation, in which the coefficient for the victory of Sasha’s opponents was more than 3.0, Zverev lost 10 times. With the right choice of financial strategy, success would be assured.
  4. Personal life. If you want to make money on tennis bets, you need to carefully monitor not only the shape and abilities of tennis players, but also their state of mind. Sometimes a player is not at all up to tennis, but he is obliged to come to one or another tournament (due to participation in the last year or a contract with sponsors). Some tennis players hate certain climates, but they have to go out and play.

These are just the main factors to look out for. If you analyze them, then betting on the outsider in tennis will no longer seem like a hopeless endeavor. On the Mightytips website, you will always find a detailed analysis of sports betting strategies that will bring you profit if you strictly follow the game plan.

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