Almost all newcomers to the field of betting make their first bets on favorites, because the probability of their victory is higher. There is some logic in this, but at a distance most inexperienced players find themselves in the red. But those few who constantly bet on outsiders, on the contrary, receive stable profits. We will talk about how this is possible in our article “Strategy of the game against the favorites”.
Why are bets on the outsider profitable?
Only beginners think that if you bet on the favorites, you will consistently win. At first glance, this is so, because Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Liverpool and other top teams win 80-90% of their matches each season. But at a distance, such bets lead to losses.
This is explained by the fact that bookmakers offer low odds to win the giants, and the final profit is small. But those few defeats that inevitably happen, and often in unexpected matches, not only eat up all the winnings, but also lead to losses. Therefore, the strategy of betting on outsiders, unexpected for many, shows good results, and there are 3 reasons for this:
- Inflated odds for an outsider to win. Analysts at bookmakers calculate the probability of certain outcomes passing and put it in the odds. But there is also something that novices do not know about: bookmakers adjust the odds depending on the bets of the players, so they are greatly underestimated for the favorite, and overestimated for the outsider. Thanks to this, the bookmaker will profit from the margin, he doesn’t even care how the fight ends.
- A huge number of bets on the favorite. This reason echoes the first. Since the majority of bettors choose a stronger team, bookmakers are increasingly reducing the odds for its victory. As a result, it can go as absurdly low as 1.05 or even 1.01.
- Fixed games. Who would not say what, but too much money is spinning in big sports, so agreements are not such a rarity. Another question is that only a couple of people know about them. And for the average player this is an additional risk, because the favorite, for which there was already a small coefficient, may deliberately lose or not win with the necessary handicap.
The main features of the strategy
Bets against favorites have their own characteristics, which are important for all players interested in this method of playing:
- Choosing a bookmaker. When playing at a distance, even hundredths of the odds matter, especially when betting on an outsider. The odds for the favorite are approximately the same for different bookmakers, but there can be a large gap for outsiders. It is important for you to find such a bookmaker who will consistently offer odds for a weak team higher than those of competitors.
- Competition selection. The lowest margins in the top leagues, so give preference to them. In addition, it is easier to prepare for matches there due to the abundance of information.
- Preparing for matches. This is an important aspect, without which you cannot make a profit. You can’t make mindless bets simply by relying on luck. Always carefully analyze the shape of the opponents, their motivation, personal meetings, the physical and psychological state of the players, do not forget about the home stadium factor.
- Reinsurance. Some players prefer to take risks and not reduce the size of the potential profit, but there are many who choose a tit in their hands. If the events in the match do not develop in favor of the favorite, the bookmaker adjusts the odds in live, and you can catch the moment when a bet on the favorite at an overestimated odds guarantees profit for any outcome of the match. Such a situation in betting, when the player is guaranteed to remain in the black, is called a “fork”.
Advantages and disadvantages
The strategy of betting against favorites has strengths and weaknesses, which we want to talk about.
- Brings profit at a distance;
- There is no need to risk large sums;
- Low competition from other players.
The main cons:
- Difficulty preparing for matches;
- Suitable for experienced players only;
- Designed for very long-term profit.
Outsider betting strategy in different sports
This strategy is universal and suitable for any sports discipline. And yet, players are predominantly betting against favorites in the following sports.
Outsider betting in football
This technique is most often used in football. And although there is a draw in this sport, you can reinsure yourself with various odds. To find suitable matches, you need to pay attention to the following:
- Favorite fatigue due to European competition;
- Motivating factor for both parties;
- The favorite has problems in the locker room;
- Injuries to leading players, especially in the attacking line;
- The outsider is traditionally unyielding at home.
After analyzing all these factors, you can find a suitable match and bet on a weaker team in it.
This is another popular sport for playing this strategy. The good thing about basketball is that there are practically no draws in it in regular time (you can play it safe and immediately take a victory, taking into account overtime). There are 82 regular season games in the NBA, and the favorites don’t always give every game the attention they deserve. Affected by fatigue at a distance, back-to-backs (two matches in two days), motivation, leaders’ rest and much more. In addition, the level of the NBA is so high that even the weakest team this season can beat the strongest in a single match.
Outsider betting in tennis
The odds for the favorites in tennis are traditionally low, for the outsiders – high. And, although the favorites win in the overwhelming majority of fights, from time to time they unexpectedly yield, and such matches need to be caught. The factors are different: coverage, psychological state, recurrent injury, uncomfortable opponent, lack of motivation, and so on.
The strategy of playing against the favorite can be profitable at a distance, but it is not a win-win method of playing. It is better to play on it for experienced players who know how to analyze matches in detail and catch those in which the outsider has a chance of success. You don’t have to choose too high odds in the hope of getting rich with just one lucky bet. Only a cool head and sober calculation will help you stay in positive territory at a distance.