Super Bowl coin toss – should you bet?

Super Bowl coin toss – should you bet?

The Super Bowl is the final game for the United States National Football League (NFL) title. It is considered one of the main sporting events of the year. Advertising contracts that companies enter into for showing videos during the Super Bowl are simply off the charts – the bill goes to millions of dollars in a few seconds. Bookmakers offer many markets for Super Bowl betting. One of the suggested options is betting on the toss of a coin before the start of the match. Perhaps the success of such a bet depends on the case, but there are still many people willing to make such a bet.

Super Bowl Betting: Rules and Basics

Super Bowl coin toss: features

The coin toss is an extremely popular event for Super Bowl predictions. Individual coins are issued for each such match. On the “heads” are the logos of the playing teams, and on the “tails” – the year and place of the fight.

Since the coins are prepared personally for each Super Bowl, there is an opinion that the side that the coin will drop after the toss is known long before the meeting. Fans of conspiracy theories are actively promoting such an idea, but, in fact, the chances of “heads” and “tails” when tossing are absolutely equal. Accordingly, the bookmakers set equal odds for this outcome.

Since 1978, the coin flip has become particularly important for the Super Bowl. For this event, stars were specially invited, which added entertainment. Not without incidents: for example, in 2012, the then Hall of Fame candidate Curtis Martin was invited to toss a coin. But in the end, he remained sitting on the podium, and referee John Perry conducted the toss.

Super Bowl coin toss: regulations

  1. Usually a coin is tossed three minutes before the main action begins.
  2. The Super Bowl is played in a neutral stadium, but each match has a nominal host. If the Super Bowl is played an odd time, as it was in 2019, the winner of the National Football Conference (NFC) becomes the host. Super Bowl # 54 was held in 2020, and the hosts of the match were the champions of the American Football Conference (AFC) – Kansas City Chiefs. Thanks to this, the Chiefs players also chose the color of their kits, and they eventually became champions, defeating the San Francisco Foti Niners.
  3. After the representative of each team chooses the side of the coin, the arbiter must loudly confirm and voice the choice. In 1998, when this rule did not yet exist, an incident occurred between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Detroit Lions before the Super Bowl. Referee Phil Luckett did not hear the Pittsburgh captain and decided that he had chosen heads, although the player then claimed to have put on tails. As a result, when the coin fell “tails”, the choice was given to “Detroit”, which eventually won the trophy.
  4. The winner of the toss has the right to choose the possession of the ball or the half of the field on which to start the match. Often times, teams choose to receive the ball, preferring to start offensively.

Super Bowl: What is important to know when betting on a coin toss

First of all, do not forget that the probability of one or the other side of a coin falling out is pure chance. However, from 1998 to 2011, a mysterious trend was observed in the Super Bowls. During this period, teams from NFC won the draw 14 times in a row. Of course, conspiracy theorists had the right to think it didn’t happen by itself.

Professional bettors are sure that coin flip bets are not the best option. The probability here is 50/50, that is, the quotes should be equal to 2.0, and the bookmaker’s margin should be 0. But, of course, no office will post such quotes. At best, you can find a 1.97 odds on a margin of just over 1%. However, most bookmakers will offer a coefficient of about 1.87, where the margin will be 7%.

For 6 consecutive years, the team that wins the coin toss has been losing the Super Bowl itself. In 2020, San Francisco was unlucky, previously the “victims” were the Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks. The last team to win both a coin and a match was Seahawks in 2014.

The toss of a coin in front of the Super Bowl is a traditional ceremony that, thanks to competent PR, has turned into a whole ritual. However, experienced bettors do not recommend betting on such an event, because your chances are only 50%, and they cannot be increased by any analytics.

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