The strategy of the game, which includes value bets, is one of the few real ways to make money in bookmakers. It boils down to getting an edge over the bookmaker’s line using the theory of probability. This strategy is not easy to use, requires knowledge and constant research of the news, but in the hands of experienced people it can bring good profits.
Value bets – what does it mean
Value betting (value betting, value) – a way in which the bettor gets an advantage over the bookmaker, seeing the discrepancy between the odds and the real probability of the outcome of the match.
For example, when the bookmaker gives a coefficient of 5 for one of the football teams to win, the player can apply the analysis and find that the probability of its victory is 30%. Such a bet will be profitable in the long run. A similar situation can arise due to the initial incorrect assessment of the chances of winning by the bookmaker or during the adjustment of the odds after the players’ bets.
Valuy may appear due to the fact that a key team player is injured. After this information, the odds for her victory begin to grow, as many players begin to bet on their opponents. But, if the replacement of the injured player turns out to be no worse than him, then the increased odds will make the bet profitable.
The strategy is suitable only for those who have experience in betting, know the technique of analyzing sports events, keep in mind the world of sports and sports competitions. Beginners will have to spend a lot of time developing all these skills. But with experience the player “fills” his hand and the process is greatly simplified.
Value Betting Strategy: How To Find Valuable Odds
The main rule of the “Value Betting” strategy is as follows: the bookmaker’s coefficient in relation to the player’s estimate of the probability of the event passing must exceed one.
Not every high coefficient is suitable for a strategy and will bring profit in the long term. To determine how profitable the odds are, you can use the following formula:
(K × V) / 100, where K is the coefficient in the line; V is the probability of the outcome according to the player’s opinion.
If, after calculating, you get a value greater than 1, then this is really a valuable coefficient. As an example, let’s imagine the following situation: in the match between Manchester United and Arsenal to win the hosts, the bookmaker gives the odds of 2.10. To find out the probability of this event from the bookmaker’s point of view, you need to divide 100% by odds of 2.10. The end result is 48%.
In turn, the player made his own analysis of the match and came to the conclusion that Manchester United would win with a 60% probability. If you divide 100% by 60%, you get a factor of 1.67. As you can see, the benefits are obvious, but is this really a valuable coefficient?
To make sure, let’s calculate according to our formula: K = 2.10, V = 60, according to the formula (2.10 × 60) / 100 = 1.26. Now we know for sure that this is a value ratio that will be beneficial in the long run.
Value bets – how to find
The first question for newbies is how to find a value rate. The first and most obvious way is to independently search for inflated odds using the bookmaker’s tape. Suitable only for those who are well versed in all the nuances of sports, since with this approach you will have to stay ahead of the bookmaker’s analysts. They are constantly on the lookout for incorrect odds and correct them so that the bookmaker does not get a loss.
Using gross bet scanners can greatly simplify and speed things up. Scanners are sites that constantly monitor the odds of bookmakers and show in which of them the odds for a particular event are too high. The data of each bookmaker is compared with the arithmetic averages for the market.
There are also sites for finding surebets. The presence of a surebet indicates that one of the bookmakers underestimates the team or player. The disadvantage of such services is that surebets are quickly corrected and there is not much time left for analysis and betting.
While mastering the value betting strategy, you shouldn’t play for money right away. To find out how well a player is doing value bets, he will have to test his skills “at a distance” of 200-500 bets. It is better to do it on paper and not at the expense of real money.
How to use the bid scanner
There are many services on the Internet for monitoring bets, for example, FlashScore, Surebet, Bet Catcher. Let’s take a look at their functionality using Bet Catcher as an example.
The Bet Catcher value bet scanner compares the odds of individual bookmakers with the market average, allowing you to quickly find overpriced ones. Separate functionality has been implemented for the Betfair betting exchange. It doesn’t support Russian, but it’s free to use. There are 3 sections on the site, each of which will be useful for value betting.
- Value Bets. In this section, you can see the difference between the odds on the Betfair exchange and the bookmakers. If the event in the bookmaker’s office is very different from Betfair, then such a bet is classified as value. This information needs to be rechecked as Betfair also has certain margins. Unregistered users can get up to 10 bids, after registration all found bids will become available. In the event window, you can see the difference in the coefficients and the dynamics of their change.
- Betfair moves. This section shows which events have dropped a lot on Betfair. If the decline in bookmakers has not yet occurred, then the service considers that these are value bets.
- Bookmakers. Shows in which markets the bookmaker’s odds are overstated.
The Archive section contains all the rates that the service has considered valuable since 2015. You can check his work on them.
When using scanners, you need to be prepared to verify the data. Automatically selected bets may not be valuable, but have high odds for other reasons.
How much to put
After the player has analyzed and made sure that this is really a value, he needs to calculate the optimal bet amount. In no case do not take this lightly, because success at a distance depends largely on the ability to choose the right amount for a bet, especially during a negative streak.
One of the most common ways of calculating the amount of the bet is the Kelly criterion, which is calculated as follows:
((V / 100) × K – 1) / (K – 1), where V is the true probability (%); K is the bookmaker’s coefficient.
Now let’s look at its action with an illustrative example. Let’s say you have chosen an outcome with a value of 1.6 and a pass probability of 63%. To determine the bet amount, we use the Kelly criterion formula: ((63/100) × 1.6 – 1) / (1.6 – 1) = 0.018. Now we multiply this number by 100% of our bank and get 0.018 × 100% = 1.8%, that is, you need to bet 2% of your bankroll.
If you do not have the ability or desire to make calculations for each bet, you can use the flat strategy. You define for yourself the amount of the bet (usually from 1 to 5% of the original bankroll) and bet on it for a predetermined amount of time. You can read more about the flat strategy in our article.
ROI (Return of Investments) is the return on investment ratio. This indicator is used in many areas and shows how profitable the investment was. To calculate the rate of return in betting, the following formula is used:
ROI = (net income from bets / sum of all bets) × 100%.
To make it clearer, let’s look at a specific example. Let’s imagine that the player has made 100 bets of 1000 rubles each. His net profit was 15,000 rubles. Now we consider: (15,000 / 100,000) × 100% = 15%.
This is a good indicator, but you need to understand that the more bets are made, the more accurate this indicator will be. Shows the payback level of 1000 or more rates more clearly. With such a large volume of wagers, an ROI of over 5% is considered a good indicator.
Should you use value bets: advantages and disadvantages
Using the Value Betting strategy has its pros and cons. However, the same applies to any other betting strategy.
Among the main advantages are the following:
- With the correct determination of value rates at a distance, you can make a profit without using a catch-up strategy;
- Since such bets are made not too often and for not the largest amounts, players do not attract undue attention from bookmakers, which allows them to avoid cutting max and blocking accounts for a long time;
- It is not necessary to create many accounts in order to play comfortably on valuable odds; 2-3 in different bookmakers with low margins are enough.
As for the main disadvantages, they are as follows:
- Difficulty in finding value odds, which makes the Value Betting strategy suitable only for experienced players, and also requires the use of additional scanners;
- A good profit in most situations can be obtained only over a very long distance with a large bankroll;
- It is necessary not only to find a suitable coefficient, but also to have time to bet on it, because bookmakers do not sleep and in most cases quickly correct odds that are unfavorable for them.
If you haven’t come across this kind of bets before, we advise you to play not for real, but for virtual money at the beginning. In this case, you will be able to get to know the Value Betting strategy better and will not risk anything. Guest accounts are now available in many offices, so there will be no problems with this.
And, of course, as with other bets: take your time, analyze carefully and approach each of your bets wisely. Good luck!