Value betting strategy

Value betting strategy

Value Betting is a sports betting strategy based on predictions of outcomes underestimated by the bookmaker.… The main idea of ​​this strategy: bets on outcomes, the probability of which is higher than the odds included in the odds, will bring the bettor income at a distance. This scheme is also called value rates.

value betting in bets

The essence of the value betting strategy

The scheme is ideal for those betting fans who regularly monitor what is happening in the world of sports and really assess the chances of a particular team or athlete. Otherwise, all efforts will be in vain, and the money will flow to the beeches.

To understand the essence of the strategy, you first need to remember the bookmaker’s margin. Recall that the margin is the guaranteed profit of bookmakers, which the bookmakers initially put in the quotes.

For example, in a match between two tennis players, the chances of winning, according to BC, are equal. Consequently, there should be equal odds for both the victory of the first and the victory of the second – 2.0 each. But the bookmaker will never offer such quotes – this is unprofitable for the office, it is unprofitable. For an event with equal odds, approximately the following odds will be set: 1.95 – 1.95. In this case, the margin is 2.56%.

If we translate these coefficients into probability, we get 51.28% by 51.28%. Therefore, it is unprofitable to bet on such coefficients, because the real probability is 50%, and the one included in the coefficient is 51.28%.

Now suppose the bookmaker overestimated one tennis player and underestimated the other. As a result, instead of equal odds, we get 1.9 for the victory of the second and 2.15 for the victory of the first. But we remember that the chances are equal, therefore, the bet on the victory of tennis player # 2 will be valuable. If you know how to calculate such beech errors, then you can use the Value Betting strategy.

How does the strategy work?

To deal with this issue, let’s take a more specific example. Let’s say the national teams of Russia and Armenia meet. The Russians have solved all their tournament tasks and are planning to put up a second squad. In this regard, the bookmaker assessed the victory of Russia as a rather high odds – 1.55 (64.5% probability). However, the bettor, after conducting his own analysis, came to the conclusion that the chances of Russia’s victory are much better – say, 80%, which corresponds to a coefficient of 1.25 (100/80).

There is a formula that will help us understand whether there is a Value rate in this case or not. It looks like K * P> 1, where:

  • K is the bookmaker’s coefficient;
  • P – the probability of the outcome offered by the bettor.

In the situation with the match in question, we have this: 1.55 * 0.80 = 1.24. This is more than one, therefore, the office over-underestimates the potential of Russia. The forecast for the victory of the Russians will be valuable.

A special formula for calculating the probable winnings has also been deduced. It looks like this: Profit = P * (K – 1) * V – (1 – P) * V, where

  • P – the probability of the outcome offered by the bettor;
  • K – odds offered by the bookmaker;
  • V is the size of the bet.

Suppose that you “charged” 1000 rubles for Russia against a football dwarf. Your profit will be: 0.80 * (1.55 – 1) * 1000 r – (1 – 0.80) * 1000 r = 500 r.

How to find value bets

To use the strategy under consideration, you need not only to know its basics, to be able to calculate the probability, but also to find the value bets offered by the bookmaker. There are several ways to do this.

  1. Manual search. You will have to independently track the events and quotes offered by the offices and find errors. Suitable for those bettors who are able to analyze and identify the probability of the outcome more accurately than the staff of the bookmaker’s office. Such players are rare.
  2. Scanners. You can use programs or online algorithms. They will scan the odds of several bookmakers at once and calculate the average value, from which they will deduce the average value. It gives maximum accuracy, because analysts from several offices have already worked on all the entered numbers. A coefficient that is markedly different from the average will be valuable.
  3. Search for values ​​among surebets. The very existence of a fork is a sign that one of the events is underestimated. As a result of surebets, overvalued odds appear, your task is to find them as a result of the analysis. Note that in the domestic bookmaker’s office, playing on “surebets” is prohibited – this is fraught with various sanctions up to the complete blocking of the account.

How profitable is the Value Betting strategy?

Bettors have different attitudes to Value Betting – there is no consensus. If you are well versed in any sport, then you can surely increase your income. If you look from the other side, then this strategy is based on subjectivity, therefore, no one and nothing guarantees you.

At the same time, understanding the theory of Value Betting is basic for bookmaker bets, so understanding the strategy will not be superfluous for every bettor. An improved variant of value bets is the Kelly Criterion strategy, in addition, Value Betting can be combined with flat, Martingale and other financial management systems.

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